Men's NCAA Bracketology 2024: Real-Time Seed and Region Projections for All 68 Teams

So you think March Madness doesn't start until next week, eh?

Last Updated: FINAL

The past four days were nothing short of insanity, but Saturday really drove that home with bid thieves in each of the ACC, AAC and Pac-12, shrinking the bubble to such an extreme that we're currently projecting a No. 10 seed for a play-in game, which has never happened before.

It's plausible that both play-in games will be No. 10 seeds this year.

In a word: Madness.

With all 32 conference tournaments finished, here is our projection for what the NCAA tournament selection committee will give us.

If I under-seeded your team, I apologize. If I over-seeded your team, you're welcome. But hopefully you enjoyed the ride as much as I did. Selection Sunday is the final exam for me as a bracketologist, but I like to think it's only 20 percent of my grade for the year. The rest is making the journey from early November until mid-March more enjoyable and informative, which was most certainly accomplished.

Now, let's see how I did.

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Midwest No. 16 Play-In Game: Wagner vs. Howard

Midwest No. 11 Play-In Game: Florida Atlantic vs. Michigan State

West No. 16 Play-In Game: Grambling State vs. Montana State

South No. 10 Play-In Game: Colorado vs. Oklahoma

10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams (Metrics will be updated and bubble will be scrubbed around noon ET each day):

Fourth-to-Last In: Colorado Buffaloes (24-10, NET: 25, RES: 34.5, QUAL: 35.5)—For letting Oregon in, Colorado has to go to Dayton.

Third-to-Last In: Oklahoma Sooners (20-12, NET: 46, RES: 40.5, QUAL: 41.0)—Been a lot of teams playing their way past Oklahoma...

Second-to-Last In: Michigan State Spartans (19-14, NET: 24, RES: 47.5, QUAL: 19.0)—Resume probably good enough, but beating Purdue would've clinched it.

Last Team In: Florida Atlantic Owls (25-8, NET: 39, RES: 36.5, QUAL: 38.0)—Loss to Temple might have been final nail in coffin.

****CUT LINE****

First Team Out: St. John's Red Storm (20-13, NET: 32, RES: 58.5, QUAL: 25.0)—Worst RES to dance in NET era? 2022 Rutgers (57.5).

Second Team Out: Virginia Cavaliers (23-10, NET: 54, RES: 34.0, QUAL: 62.0)—Failing to foul up three might cost UVA a bid.

Third Team Out: Indiana State Sycamores (27-6, NET: 29, RES: 39.5, QUAL: 43.0)—My heart says "yes!" but my brain says "might miss."

Fourth Team Out: Providence Friars (21-13, NET: 57, RES: 55.5, QUAL: 49.5)—Three games below .500 vs. Q1-Q3 historically isn't good enough.

Fifth Team Out: Pittsburgh Panthers (22-11, NET: 40, RES: 51.5, QUAL: 36.5)—When selecting final teams, Pitt's 342nd-ranked NCSOS will be problematic.

Sixth Team Out: Seton Hall Pirates (20-12, NET: 67, RES: 51.0, QUAL: 65.5)—Of the five metrics, one rates Seton Hall top 60.

Sunday Morning Scrub

It's a tradition like no other: After three days of complete carnage, I pour myself a cup of coffee and work line by line through the bracket to see if anything needs to change.

I try not to change much, because that's where you get into trouble. But the big one is swapping Kansas and Duke as the bottom No. 3 seed and top No. 4 seed. Despite many instances of the selection committee giving the Blue Devils a slightly higher seed than they deserve, the combination of Kansas' superior top-end metrics and the constant talk in recent days about Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson being healthy for the dance pushed me over the edge. Can't wait to be wrong on that one.

Beyond that, the only other seed line change outside of the Nos. 12-16 seed auto bids was Dayton moving up to replace Northwestern on the No. 8 line. Thinking I over-penalized the Flyers for dropping them from No. 28 to No. 33 for the loss to Duquesne, and never quite penalized Northwestern enough for a poor NET, a terrible NCSOS and an awful home loss to Chicago State. It only changes the jersey color those teams will wear, though.

Thought about trying to scrub St. John's back into the field at the expense of Florida Atlantic, but opted to leave well enough alone. I've gone cross-eyed looking at those bubble teams over the past few days, and if the committee already had FAU in the field prior to its loss to Temple, it isn't going to punt those Owls all the way out. But, man, it is hard to justify leaving all three of those Big East bubble teams out, especially to reward both Michigan State and Florida Atlantic, who did very little as far as high-end wins are concerned. Got to stick with what we already had, though.

One final scrubbing note: Had to rearrange the SEC's No. 4 seeds for purposes of first and second-round sites in regard to BYU, which will not play on Sundays. We now have Kentucky in the West Region, but starting its run in Pittsburgh (where John Calipari is from, by the way. Moon Township, represent.) And now both Auburn and Alabama will start out in Spokane.

Seeding by Conference (punched tickets are underlined)

A-10 (2): 32. Dayton; 49. Duquesne

AAC (2): 44. Florida Atlantic; 51. UAB

ACC (4): 4. North Carolina; 13. Duke; 25. Clemson; 45. North Carolina State

Big 12 (9): 3. Houston; 7. Iowa State; 9. Baylor; 12. Kansas; 19. Texas Tech; 20. BYU; 31. Texas; 33. TCU; 41. Oklahoma

Big East (3): 1. Connecticut; 8. Marquette; 10. Creighton

Big Ten (6): 2. Purdue; 11. Illinois; 17. Wisconsin; 30. Nebraska; 34. Northwestern; 43. Michigan State

MVC (1): 40. Drake

MWC (6): 18. San Diego State; 24. Nevada; 28. Utah State; 29. Boise State; 36. New Mexico; 38. Colorado State

Pac-12 (4): 6. Arizona; 26. Washington State; 39. Colorado; 42. Oregon

SEC (8): 5. Tennessee; 14. Kentucky; 15. Auburn; 16; Alabama; 21. Florida; 23. South Carolina; 35. Mississippi State; 37. Texas A&M

WCC (2): 22. Saint Mary's; 27. Gonzaga

The Rest (21): 46. Grand Canyon; 47. James Madison; 48. McNeese State; 50. Samford; 52. Yale; 53. Vermont; 54. Charleston; 55. Akron; 56. Oakland; 57. Morehead State; 58. Colgate; 59. Long Beach State; 60. Western Kentucky; 61. South Dakota State; 62. Longwood; 63. Saint Peter's; 64. Stetson; 65. Montana State; 66. Grambling State; 67. Howard; 68. Wagner